Staking Calculator

Size every bet like a pro

The fastest way to blow a bankroll is betting the same amount on a coin flip and a lock. The Kelly criterion sizes each stake to your real edge and your bankroll — bet more when the edge is bigger, nothing when it isn't. Set your roll once and get a disciplined number on every play.

Your bankroll

Set once and every stake suggestion is sized to your roll. Nothing here moves real money — it's a discipline tool, not a wallet.

Bankroll

Total money you've set aside for betting — never rent or bills.Unit size

What one 'unit' is worth. Our track record is in flat units — this converts it to your scale.

Kelly fraction

Full Kelly maximizes growth but swings hard. Most disciplined bettors use quarter or half Kelly to survive variance.

Max bet cap

% of bankroll

A hard ceiling on any single bet, even if Kelly suggests more.

Recommended stake

Enter the model's win probability and the price you can get. We size the bet with fractional Kelly against your bankroll.

Win probability

American odds

Market implies 52.4%

Suggested stake$13.75≈ 1.38 units

of bankroll1.38%

Edge

+2.6

+5.0%

Full Kelly

5.5%

How Kelly staking works

Kelly stakes a share of your bankroll proportional to your edge and the odds. Bigger edge and longer odds mean a larger optimal fraction.
We default to quarter Kellybecause a model's win probability is an estimate, not a certainty. Fractional Kelly keeps most of the growth with a fraction of the swings.
A max-bet cap is a second guardrail: no single bet exceeds your chosen ceiling, even when Kelly is greedy.
When your probability doesn't beat the price, the answer is no bet. Sizing zero on -EV spots is where bankrolls are actually saved.
This is a bankroll-management tool for entertainment. It never holds funds or places wagers. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.