Honest Performance
Most pick sites show you their wins and quietly delete their losses. We do the opposite. Every disciplined AI pick is graded the instant its game ends, written to an append-only ledger, and counted here — win or lose. This page is the plain-English verdict; the numbers are computed live and can never be edited after the fact.
Currently unprofitable: -33.2u at -33.8% ROI
We are not going to bury this. Across 98 settled picks the AI has lost money at a flat 1-unit stake. 98 bets is a small sample dominated by variance, so it is not proof the system is broken — but it is plainly not proof that it works either. A losing record shown honestly is worth more than a winning one you cannot verify.
Based on 98 settled picks since Aug 15, 2026, most recent Aug 16, 2026.
Read the sample size before you read the record
98 settled picks is a small sample. In sports betting, short-run results are dominated by variance: a losing system can look brilliant for 50 bets, and a winning one can look broken for just as long. Treat everything on this page as information, not a promise — and never bet money you cannot afford to lose chasing it.
Did we beat the closing line?
This is the metric we hold ourselves to. Beating the market's closing price is the single most reliable sign of a real edge — far more trustworthy than a short-run win rate. If we are not beating the close, we are not beating the market.
Not available yet — and we will not fake it. Our strongest honesty metric requires a captured closing line on settled picks, and we do not have a sample yet. 3 picks with a captured closing line are in flight and will populate this section as they settle.
Why you can trust these numbers
- Append-only ledger. A pick is written with its side, confidence, and the exact odds it was made at, then graded against the final score. The row is never edited or deleted afterward.
- No survivorship bias. Losing picks stay on the record with the same weight as winners. The win rate and ROI above include every settled bet.
- Computed live, provable independently. These figures are derived from the raw ledger on every page load. You can audit the cryptographic proof chain and inspect the full statistical breakdown yourself.
What we do not claim
- We do not promise profit. No model, ours included, can guarantee a winning bet — and anyone who tells you otherwise is lying.
- We do not sell “locks” or guaranteed winners. Confidence is a probability, not a certainty.
- We do not hide down periods. If the record above is red, it is red, and it will stay that way until real results change it.
- Sports betting has a built-in house edge. Over the long run, the majority of bettors lose money. This is entertainment and information — not an income strategy.
The last 12 settled picks
- Goncalo Da Rosa Castro (+1818)Kyrian Jacquet @ Goncalo Da Rosa Castro · ATP · 0-2-1.00u
- Niklas Waldner (+2099)Niklas Waldner @ Laslo Djere · ATP · 2-0-1.00u
- Juan Carlos Prado Angelo (+134)Taro Daniel @ Juan Carlos Prado Angelo · ATP · 0-2-1.00u
- Somerset County Cricket Club (-146)Somerset County Cricket Club @ Northamptonshire Steelbacks · T20 · 143-126-1.00u
- Mitch Ramirez (+300)Chase Hooper @ Mitch Ramirez · UFC · 0-0+0.00u
- Kamaru Usman Usman (+183)Dricus Du Plessis @ Kamaru Usman Usman · UFC · 137-148-1.00u
- Jared Cannonier Cannonier (+330)Jared Cannonier Cannonier @ Christian Duncan · UFC · 89-82-1.00u
- Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (+178)Adolfo Daniel Vallejo @ Valentin Vacherot · ATP · 0-2+1.78u
- Vicente Luque (-104)Vicente Luque @ Tresean Gore · UFC · 89-82-1.00u
- Neil Magny (+124)Neil Magny @ Ramiz Brahimaj · UFC · 0-0+0.00u
- Los Angeles Dodgers (+110)Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · MLB · 1-4-1.00u
- Houston Astros (-120)Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros · MLB · 5-10-1.00u
Bet responsibly
If betting stops being fun, or you are chasing losses, stop. Help is free and confidential: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER. You must be 21+ where applicable. This site is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not betting advice.
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Now that you know exactly how we measure ourselves, judge the picks for yourself.